Wednesday, 2 March 2016

Cubism Economics: 3-year blogging highlights

Cubism Economics was born in March 2013.

The purpose was threefold:

1. Create a legacy for my children (and control instrument for my wife. And friends): how did papa think as he was a grown-up Londoner teenager? Did he change? I intend to remain a grown-up teenager for many, many years. But this way they can control my evolution more easily by looking at how my writing style changes over time. And warn me, before it's too late, if I start failing in my intentions and becoming a spectacularly boring grown-up

2. Monitor how my thinking evolves over time. And answer the question: how often am I wrong and why? So that I can learn from my mistakes and improve my analytical skills and decision-making process

3. Engage in a regular broad framing exercise: look at the big picture, quantify it, and put forward my ideas in a punchy, crispy, provocative manner. With the aim to obtain the broadest possible feedback and diversity of opinions from the outside world. Not to confirm my initial views but to challenge and falsify them. Thus improving my understanding of the world, the quality of my decisions and helping me to avoid making mistakes in the first place. Yes, Karl Popper is my hero. And any professional investor's most cherished philosopher

So here we are. Three years later. More than time to say to the outside world: many, many thanks for following and challenging me. And be assured that although some good posts were published over the last 36 months, the best ones are still to come. Promise!

Below is a selection of the most popular "masterpieces" published so far. Enjoy!

- Greece's debt position and fundamentals are much better than you think

- An Eurozone periphery debt restructuring is unavoidable (eventually via successive maturity extensions and lowering of interest rates)

- Attracting massive amounts of FDI is the ultimate goal of structural reforms in the periphery. And the solution for Eurozone's economic imbalances

Link 1


Link 2

- Paul Krugman has an obsession with short-term thinking. And for him it's always zee Germans fault even when they are the ones undergoing a crisis. Oh dear...

- ...which could be partially explained by academic macro-economists love for flows. And lack of understanding of balance sheets

- The European Union doesn't deserve one Nobel Prize. It deserves two

- Europe and China. Economics is not a dismal zero-sum game. Seriously!

- Climate Change is not above believing. It's about risk management

- Mario Draghi is a resourceful man. Accept his Christmas 2014 present and stop complaining

- Yanis Varoufakis strategy was flawed from inception because he didn't run the numbers

- The Troika has been much more supportive of Greece than people think. Starting with Martim Wolf

- China won't be a remake of 2008's western financial crisis. At least not in the next three years

- Equities: a 2016 US profit recession is mostly priced in

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