Tuesday, 25 August 2015

China: a remake of 2008's global financial crisis?

I appreciate the arguments that there are pockets of excessive debt in the Chinese economy (local governments, real estate). And that a mis-allocation of capital (both private and public investments generating returns below the cost of capital) has been taken place in some sectors of the economy (public infrastructure, heavy industries).

However, I cannot see how all that can lead to a major economic and financial crisis in the country until the mis-allocation of capital translates into sustainable current account deficits. And makes China dependent on external financing.

My opinion on China's imminent economic implosion remains the same as in March 2014. Please read:
Don't be fooled by the availability bias

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