World Cup 2022 - it's happening. All you need to know

Dear All,

We had Trump. Four British prime ministers. The end of Merkel's golden era and the beginning of colourful cool Germany (note: for conservative Germans cool means that heating prices are not what they used to be). A pandemic. An ongoing war at EU's doorsteps. The rise and fall of crypto - several times. The goodbye of the all-time world's number 1 magician: Roger Federer. Four years is a long time. It's time for another football world cup. 

For those who don't want to know what is going to happen in Qatar between 20 November and 18 December, stop reading now. For all the others, here is all you need to know:

1. Qatar. How could it be any different? The Qataris will try to bribe every rival team during the group stage with cheap natural gas deliveries for the next 10 years. Ecuador and Senegal couldn't care less. Netherlands' gas storage capacities are fully filled up. Qatar will find out that nat gas can't buy you love. Nor football success. The hard way - its journey will end where it started: at the group stage.

2. Italy. What a team full of elegance, attacking beauty and above all unshakeable self-confidence! So much so that it seriously thought to be able to win the world cup without qualifying for the competition. Mi dispiace - it's not the way it works.

3. Germany. A new generation. Colourful and cool - like the new post-Merkel Germany in the making. Kimmich will finally play in midfield and be one of the tournament's highlights. Die Mannschaft will do much better than the German public expects. And worse than the rest of the world fears.

4. Mexico. Exports to the USA account for 24% of the country's GDP. It makes Mexico what most Mexicans never wanted to be: USA's 51st Federal State. And places the country miles away from what Mexicans always dreamed to be: worse economically and better in football than Argentina. Arriba Mexico! And above all: keep dreaming.

5. Iran. It's not easy to be an Ayatollah these days. First, massive international pressure following the uncovering of Iranian military drones being used by Russia in Ukraine. Then, political upheaval at home. Girl power bringing the regime to the brink of collapse. And now this: having to play England and the USA - the USA! - in the group stage of the world cup. But worry not - Iranian players will be received as heroes on their return home. The double defeat against England and USA will trigger a collective nervous breakdown of the already very fragile Ayatollahs and - yes! - regime change. Football, clever girls and democracy - what is there not to like?

6. England. For the first time in living memory the English players will arrive in top shape at a major international tournament. Full of energy, youthfulness and ambition (let's forget team manager Southgate for a minute) England will be a welcome addition to the top favourites shortlist. Fans all over England will be more enthusiastic than ever in their hopes, celebrations and pub drinking. After the group stage, the country's newspapers will be dominated by headlines about the perfect connection between fans and players: "drink team at home supports dream team in Qatar". In the end, tradition will prevail: the drink team will massively outperform the dream team. Cheers!

7. USA. Having won World War III in the match against Iran, the US players will go back to what they do best: play baseball. This football world cup is all about diversity.

8. Canada. Just a gentle reminder to the Canadian team: only the goalkeeper can use his hands. And only in his own box. Ok? Whatever.....

9. Netherlands. Cruyff's home country. Cruyff! Cruyff! Cruyff! The most influential and revolutionary personality in the history of the game, first as a player and then as a coach. The best football mentor I never had. Netherlands attacking football will be the usual delight for the spectator. Cruyff style football without Cruyff. Cruyff never won the world cup for his country. What goes around comes around. Now his country will not win the world cup for him. 

10. Belgium. It has been the secret favourite of all major tournaments for at least the past 6 years. Not this time. Without the external pressure of the public and media, the players will feel more relaxed than ever and play like never before. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. Belgian chocolate pralines anyone?

11. Spain. What a team! How much talent! A true delight to see them play! Sergio Ramos, Piqué, Puyol, Xabi Alonso, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Villa, Torres. History books are great. And past performance is not indicative of future results.

12. France. La Grande Nation. The world champions. The perfect combination of outstanding technical skills, speed and physical strength. Four years ago, the country's football strategy led by President Macron was clear: "Liberté! Egalité! Mbappé!" It's clear this time as well: "Liberté! Egalité! Croissant & Café!". What can you say? The French always have the right priorities.

13. Argentina. Messi! The best football player I have ever seen. The footballer without weaknesses capable of making the impossible possible on a consistent basis. Watching Leo Messi and Roger Federer play will remain as two of the greatest privileges in anyone's life. Human beauty supreme. Federer finished his career without being the Grand Slam titles record holder. Messi will finish his without winning the world cup. Super heroes are not what they used to be.

14. Portugal. The most talented team of the tournament: Diogo Costa, Cancelo, Rúben Dias, Nuno Mendes. Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva. Otávio, João Félix, Rafael Leão. Technically outstanding. Highly creative. Tactically sophisticated. Unlimited ambition. The perfect average age. Portugal also has the legendary Cristiano Ronaldo in the squad. And Fernando Santos as a coach. It could have been glorious.

15. Brazil. Jogo bonito. The world cup winner speaks Portuguese.

Enjoy!

Best wishes,
Rui

Outrageous predictions for 2022

Dear All,

Happy New Year!

I’m spending too much time in the Metaverse - some call it Financial Markets - these days and almost missed that 2022 had already started.

But worry not. I did not forget that you need my guidance to walk confidently through 2022. So here they are - my outrageous predictions for 2022:

1. By the end of 2022 everyone will be asking: "remind me, what was that covid thing again"?

2. Companies are building inventory so aggressively that we will end up with an excess supply of durable goods in the 2H2022. Meaning: wait until September to buy that new coffee machine. Fridge. Bike. Car. Or start your flat refurbishment. It will be (much) cheaper then. Durable goods deflation is a beautiful thing.

3. With US inflation proving to be more persistent than initially expected, the Fed will have to decide between fighting inflation aggressively or protect asset prices. Protect the poor or the rich. In full compliance with its mandate, it chooses the former. And it panics, tightening monetary policy much more aggressively than expected (and necessary). Stock markets collapse: peak-to-trough the S&P 500 loses 30%. The Nasdaq 40%. Tesla 60%. Meme stocks anyone?

4. It will be the year of the great re-opening. And revenge travelling will take off decisively. Book your holidays for the next 2 years. Now! (PS Travel & Leisure stocks will be some of the very few with a positive performance for the year. Just saying).

5. Boris will still be British PM in December, proving that Brits have a brilliant sense of humour. The world’s best. What is there not to like about a good party anyway? 

6. Putin invades Ukraine. Better now than after it becomes a NATO member, his rationale goes. The Nordstream 2 gas pipeline is discontinued. US and Middle East (more expensive) LNG replace Russian gas in the EU. The green energy revolution will pick up speed - and yes, nuclear energy will be part of the new green.

7. In the US, the democrats will lose the mid-term elections. Sorry Joe! 

8. By the end of the year, Trump will be by far the most popular politician in the US. Encouraged by his rising popularity, he sets course for world domination: he announces a Deutsche Bank debt financed takeover bid for Twitter. 

9. In December, the football World Cup will take place in Qatar. For the first time in living memory, English players will not arrive at a major international tournament in much worse physical shape, after a long Premier League season, than their rivals. Given England’s strong squad, they are serious contenders to win the title. Christmas will see record alcohol sales in England. “Drink teams“ will be formed all over the nation to forget the “dream team’s” failure to win the World Cup. Consolation prize: Germany won't win either. Can’t wait for that roaring party at number 10!

10. At the end of December you will be eagerly awaiting my outrageous predictions for 2023. I’ll send them out in January. The Metaverse is very addictive indeed.