My outrageous predictions for 2026

Dear All,

Happy New Year. Here they are again - my outrageous predictions. For 2026.

1. The US invades Greenland, which is 3.5x the size of France and has a population of 57k people. The Danes, who run the territory (public administration, education, healthcare system), respond in best hygge style: peaceful non-cooperation. After several weeks of not being able to get a decent coffee for two days in a row, the morale of the US military collapses. A new Greenland treaty between the USA and Denmark is negotiated and political tensions are settled: Greenland remains part of Denmark, the US can operate any number of military bases and explore the natural resources in the territory, the capital city is renamed Trump Nuuk. For difficult problems, easy solutions: make Trump vain again.

2. After capturing Maduro on the 3rd of January, the USA forces pro-US regime change in Venezuela. Different geographies, different motives, same approach: the USA also intervenes militarily in Mexico and Iran. Iran’s regime falls. A US-brokered peace deal is reached in Ukraine. Trump is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

 

3. Kevin Hasset is appointed Fed Chairman. Despite strong GDP growth and sticky inflation around 3%, the Fed cuts interest rates four times in 2026. The bond market reacts accordingly: the 10-year US treasury yield hits 5% by year-end.

 

4. Nvidia’s shares fall 50% from their peak. The seven magnificent lose, on average, 35% of their market cap peak-to-through. Alphabet TPUs instead of Nvidia GPUs? Technological disruption? Overinvestment in AI infrastructure’s day of reckoning? No. Simply long-term interest rates are financial market’s true gravitational force. And yes - simplicity is the highest form of sophistication.

 

5. Worsened terms-of-trade, tight fiscal and monetary policy (following a primary deficit reduction of 2% of GDP and the most aggressive increase in interest rates in decades) - this is what happened to Germany in the period 2020-2023. Given the context, and contrary to mainstream opinion, it was not a signal of weakness that economic growth was flat in 2023-2025. On the contrary, it is a signal of strong economic resilience that Germany didn’t undergo a deep recession. With all the above-mentioned restrictive growth factors reversed and a magnificent public spending bazooka in full swing in 2026, Germany will turn into Europe’s growth engine. This year, GDP growth will reach 3%.

 

6. European natural gas prices - Dutch TTF Hub 1 Day Forward - fall to pre-Ukraine war levels: Eur 25 per MWh. Global LNG’s ever rising supply is a beautiful thing.

 

7. In 2026, electric vehicles - BEVs and Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) – will account for more than 40% of new car registrations in Germany. Who said that Germans are combustion engine addicts with no passion for the electrification of transportation?

 

8. The not so right trio. After Argentina and Chile, Brazil doesn’t turn right. Leftwing icon Lula is re-elected President in the country’s October elections.

 

9. At the end of 2026, LLM”s will be so yesterday. AI systems that fully integrate language, sound and image will become the new gold standard. Alphabet’s Gemini overtakes ChatGPT across the board. Vibe coding becomes the new normal of coding. AGI will look incredibly close to happen. Then again, it will not be so. By the end of the year, AI systems will be spectacularly better than today at providing the right answers - but still completely unable to ask the relevant questions.

 

10. The European population is aging fast. To solve the problem of unsustainable social security systems, governments typically first try to rise the fertility rate, then female’s labour force participation rate and finally to increase emigration. When emigration rises fast and reaches 15%-20% of the population, populist anti-emigration parties tend to obtain 20%-25% of the vote in national elections. To avoid a total fragmentation of the political system mainstream, centrist parties implement the ultimate sustainable solution: link retirement age to life expectancy and raise the former. Denmark raised the retirement age to 70 years in 2025. In 2026 other EU countries will follow the Danish example. And no - France will not lower the retirement age. Lifelong learning. Lifelong stimulating work. Why not?

 

11. Spanish-British actress Judith Fernández is clever, witty, talented, beautiful. She wins the Oscar for best actress in 2026. A star is born.

 

12. Summer time, football time. The world cup 2026 takes place in the USA, Mexico and Canada between the 11th of June and 19th of July. A European team wins the competition. More details to follow in early June.

 

13. I will send you my outrageous predictions for 2027 around the 15th of January 2027. Tradition. Consistency. The remarkable elegance of being punctually late - what is there not to like?

 

Enjoy every minute in 2026! It will be extraordinary. Fantastic. Spectacular. And with humanity (still) ahead of AI.